Governing Council Member Stournaras stated that current interest rates are in a good equilibrium state. SHFE tin prices gradually rebounded above the 270,000 mark [SMM Tin Morning Brief].

SMM Tin Morning Brief on September 22, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) continued to climb during the night session, closing at 271,400 yuan/mt, up 1.12% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) On September 19, GAC International officially signed a KD factory cooperation agreement with Cambodian partner TH Group. The Cambodian KD factory, located in Kampong Chhnang Province in central Cambodia, is strictly built to GAC standards with a total investment of approximately $19 million. The factory plans to establish four assembly lines with an annual capacity of 15,000 units, is expected to be completed in December 2025, and will officially start mass production in January 2026. (2) On September 20, the country's first fully self-controllable new-generation 500 kV substation—Xiquan Substation—was put into operation in Liaoning. Xiquan Substation has achieved full-chain localisation of core materials, key chips, operating systems, databases, and even technical standards for electrical and protection equipment, enhancing grid security and the new energy power transmission capacity in northern Liaoning. (3) European Central Bank—① President Lagarde: The ECB has reached its inflation target, but uncertainties remain. ② Governing Council member Scicluna: Current interest rates are appropriate, and the central bank is capable of responding to downside risks. ③ Governing Council member Stournaras: Current interest rates are in a good equilibrium, and no further easing is needed.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas such as Yunnan, with some smelters maintaining production halts for maintenance in September (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin bars in east China have declined, and some producers have reduced operating rates; Electronics industry: Electronics end-users in south China have entered the off-season, and combined with high tin prices, end-users exhibit strong wait-and-see sentiment, with orders only meeting essential needs; Other sectors: Demand remains stable in areas such as tinplate and chemicals, without showing unexpected growth.

Spot market: Last week, as tin prices fell, trading in the spot market gradually became more active, with most downstream and end-user enterprises conducting small-scale restocking. However, the rally during Friday's night session dampened downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm, leading them to adopt a wait-and-see approach and suspend purchases.

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